Showing posts with label free of tie. Show all posts
Showing posts with label free of tie. Show all posts

Wednesday, 6 July 2011

Lies, damned lies and statistics ... Part 2

“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen six, result happiness.
 
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pound ought and six, result misery.”

Charles Dickens, in his 1849 novel David Copperfield, provides us all with an apt Profit and Loss Statement, income and expenditure recorded and the result analysed.

Your pub business is like any other it will make a profit or a loss depending on two factors – income and expenditure.

I have provided many examples on this website on how to improve sales and control costs (and many others will provide similar information) but for many pub businesses knowing what targets you should aim for in cost control is less clear.

On July 4th 2011 the Association of Licensed Multiple Retailers (ALMR) announced the publishing of its annual Benchmark Survey Report in which it details its findings on such things as sales, costs, capital expenditure etc amongst its members. The survey taken in October 2010 coincides quite nicely with a report from a well known licensed trade accountancy firm.

Between them they provide an insight into what pubs in certain sectors are achieving in terms of profitability based on the profit and loss information on a virtually identical number of sites so comparisons (whilst usually odious) should be valid.

The ALMR report suggests that the average cost of running a pub (out of the 699 pubs surveyed) is 47.1% of annual turnover in freeholds and 44.9% in tenancies and leasehold pubs (excluding rent and cost of sales). Add the 11.4% of turnover that represents rent and this means non-freehold pubs have to give over 55% of their turnover to running the pub (although this includes a figure of 7.2% for tenant’s drawings), which nets out to 47.8%.

The accountancy firm gives the following analysis of some 701 pubs (no detail is given of whether they are tied or free of tie) for three levels of trading, under £3,000 per week, £3,000 to £5,999 per week and those over £6,000 per week. Average cost of running these pubs is 46.8%, including rent at 9.22%.



Analysing their results using an average of all their averages (i.e. different levels of turnovers etc) the results would appear quite encouraging:

Detail
 weekly

Annual

% of sales
Wet
 £     4,219

 £219,388

70.16%
Dry
 £     1,319

 £  68,605

21.94%
Accommodation
 £        475

 £  24,700

7.90%
Total
 £     6,013

 £312,693








Cost Wet Sales
 £     1,715

 £  89,162


Cost Dry Sales
 £        535

 £  27,812


Total Costs of Sales
 £     2,249

 £116,974








Gross Margin




Gross Margin %
GP Wet
 £     2,504

 £130,226

59.36%
GP Dry
 £        784

 £  40,794

59.46%
Total Margin
 £     3,289

 £171,019

59.38%






Gross Profit
 £     3,764

 £195,719

62.59%






Overheads




% of t/over
Rent
 £        620

 £  32,245

10.31%
Electric
 £        123

 £    6,420

2.05%
Gas
 £         87

 £    4,513

1.44%
Wages
 £     1,051

 £  54,667

17.48%
Other
 £     1,219

 £  63,404

20.28%






Total overhead
 £     3,101

 £161,248

51.57%






Profit/Loss
 £        663

 £  34,472

11.02%

























Assuming that the draught/bottled beers represent 70% of wet sales and an average price per pint of £2.70 this would be a MAT (Moving Annualised Total) barrelage of approximately 197.5.

Making the same assumptions as above the cost to tenant of a barrel of beer would be £338.60 or £206.92 for an 11 gallon keg.

Does any of this sound realistic, in terms of tied tenancies and leases? Is it really possible to make over £34,000 profit from a 200 barrel pub?

The answer is yes if the divisible profit is equitably split – the landlord charging rent at 10% and selling beer to tenants at £338 a barrel. This would mean somewhere in the region of £100 per barrel discount earned by the landlord being passed on to the tenant.

Yes, that is, if you also accept the premise that the provision of accommodation is akin to “getting money in for changing some sheets”. If this income is treated as “cost free” in these accounts then it accounts for 72% of the net profit of the business. For those pubs not able to provide this service it means net profit would be reduced to £9,772.

Put in the real price of beer, as evinced by contributors to the Publican’s Morning Advertiser forum, that beer is nearer £256 for a 22 gallon, this means the averaqe of all average pubs from these samples of the trade universe are making a loss of £6,735 a year … I bet that rings true!

Whilst these “benchmarks” may be of use in setting targets or as comparitors for your business you must remember that your business is unique and the trick is to closely examine all areas of income (to maximise them) and all areas of expenditure (to minimise them) in order to make the greatest profit from your endeavour.

Monday, 20 June 2011

Listen to the pubco piggies squeal!

So Free of Tie would destroy the business model of most pubco's according to Punch? This tacit admission that their model is flawed is the most self-damning statement since Gerald Ratner trashed his own brand ... they cite such reasons as having to be a tied estate to get the level of discount they currently enjoy.

I, for one, would be extremely surprised if any supply contract was dependent upon the FOT/tied status of the estate being supplied. Supply contracts to pubcos are predicated upon one thing only - volume.

If a pubco has mixture of FOT/Tied pubs on its books it is for them to supply the FOT at sufficiently attractive rates that retain the barrelage - along with a reasonable credit stance - if they were to fail to provide what other suppliers to the free trade are offering then they would probably lose the business.

There is no doubt that a truly FOT model for the pubcos would result in the collapse of their business as they would be unable to generate sufficient income from beer discount and sustainable market rents to pay for their borrowings... hence the announcement that (for instance) Punch is to dispose of 2,300 sites that are uneconomic for them.

My guess is that many of these sites would be economic for their current tenants if realistic prices are achieved for the purchase of their respective freeholds as despite what others say I believe that the FOT model will always be inherently more beneficial to a tenant / freeholder than a tied one.

It has to be as there is one less mouth to feed from the pie!

In the words of one of my best mates "Boo Hoo Squish Squish" for Punch et al ...