Hobby Horses ...

I know I've been banging on about it a bit ... alright then a lot ... but it's gratifying terrifying to have ones own 'amateur' calculations confirmed by the 'professionals' in the industry ... in October 2012 I extrapolated some figures from BBPA regarding diminishing tax takes for the Treasury ... as the Wine & Spirits Trade Association (WSTA) reports that it has calculated that alcohol duty collected for 2012/13 will be £500m less than expected, while estimated duty received in 2017/18 will be £3.4bn less than predicted due to the impact of high taxes on the alcohol industry, according to its research.

The WSTA says that "the tax structure is such that each additional increase in rate now risks reducing rather than increasing the absolute amount of tax raised." 

I only mention this as my original figure was based on the CAMRA estimate of total tax collected per pint of £1 includes VAT ... so if the WTSA comes up with just duty collected being down half a billion pounds this year ... what is the likely total tax take implication?

£1,136,000,000

2012/13

and the Treasury's Estimate of Scrapping the Beer Duty Escalator?

£120,000,000 

Net Loss to the Exchequer?

£1,016,000,000  

Net Loss All Tax by 2017/18?

£7,727,000,000

... and that doesn't include knock on costs of unemployment caused by the continuing closure and loss of 18 pubs a week.

So I've still only got one question for Georgie Porgie ... "still think the alcohol duty escalators are a good idea?". A fiver says this won't dissuade the Treasury from announcing the retention of the beer duty escalator on March 20th.

Nurse! Meds! Stat!